![]() ![]() These algorithms serve as a rigorous yet structurally flexible interface for parasite transmission among human and mosquito host populations and for the coupled dynamics of volant adult and aquatic immature mosquito populations. The framework was built around new, biologically realistic algorithms describing mosquito blood feeding and egg laying in response to resource availability. Using this framework, we develop metrics for parasite dispersal, local reproductive numbers, and malaria connectivity, we re-examine human biting rates and entomological inoculation rates. We present a new, modular framework for building highly realistic models of malaria drawing on a century of research and innovation. ![]() Development of the model and metrics have focused on malaria, but since the framework is modular, the same ideas and software can be applied to other mosquito-borne pathogen systems.Ī simple mathematical model of malaria has been the basis for the quantitative study of parasite transmission, but it lacked features to describe spatial dynamics and parasite dispersal. An package that implements the framework, solves the differential equations, and computes spatial metrics for models developed in this framework has been developed. We present new formulas to describe parasite dispersal and spatial dynamics under steady state conditions, including the human biting rates, parasite dispersal, the “vectorial capacity matrix,” a human transmitting capacity distribution matrix, and threshold conditions. We propose updated definitions for the human biting rate and entomological inoculation rates. Structural elements in the framework-human population strata, patches, and aquatic habitats-interact through a flexible design that facilitates construction of ensembles of models with scalable complexity to support robust analytics for malaria policy and adaptive malaria control. The core dynamical components describing mosquito ecology and malaria transmission were decomposed, redesigned and reassembled into a modular framework. We developed new algorithms to simulate adult mosquito demography, dispersal, and egg laying in response to resource availability. ![]() We designed a generic interface for building structured, spatial models of malaria transmission based on a new algorithm for mosquito blood feeding. Here, we present a patch-based differential equation modeling framework that extends the Ross-Macdonald model with sufficient skill and complexity to support planning, monitoring and evaluation for Plasmodium falciparum malaria control. The Ross-Macdonald model has exerted enormous influence over the study of malaria transmission dynamics and control, but it lacked features to describe parasite dispersal, travel, and other important aspects of heterogeneous transmission. ![]()
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